COP21: Key outcomes - Part 2

Laurent Fabius, chair of the 2015 UNFCCC and Christiana Figueres,
executive secretary of the UNFCCC celebrating the
adoption of the Paris agreement. Source: (BBC,2015).

For part 1 click here

Review mechanism 

A key component of the agreement, and a vital one to ensure that the 1.5 degree target is met is a reviewing mechanism. There will be a review of what countries are proposing by 2019 and followed by a global stocktake (review) in 2023 and every five years after used to enhance and update nationally determined contributions.

Progression over time:

The first thing to note is that although the original aim of the agreement (Paris, 2015) was to reach, for the first time, a universal, legally binding agreement, the Paris agreement is in fact part legally binding and partly voluntary.

The aspects of the agreement that are legal include the obligation for countries to set nationally determined contributions (emissions targets) and the review mechanism. Furthermore, each "successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression". This is a vital component for reaching the 1.5C target as the current INDCs submitted, at best have the capability of limiting temperature rises to 2.7C by 2100 (see INDCs blog).

However, under the Paris agreement the targets themselves will not be legally binding. Instead the UN is banking on peer pressure to ensure that the INDCs achieve what they have been designed to do. That said, as Matt McGrath highlights, peer pressure has been successful thus far in ensuring 187 countries lodged INDCs in the run up to COP21 (BBC, 2015)

Equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities:

The Paris agreement marks a significant change from the Kyoto protocol which excluded developing countries and marks a positive shift from Copenhagen where developed/developing debates raged surrounding historical responsibility. The Paris agreement is designed to get around differentiation, recognising equity and the principle of common responsibilities (we are all in this together) and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances (levels of development). Over time developing countries will do more and more with assistance provided from developed countries.

Climate finance:

Climate finance and the $100 billion climate fund pledged in Copenhagen to help with adaption were predicted to be one of the biggest areas of contention going into COP21, and 'grey areas' such as where the money is coming from still remain. That said the agreement does include new legally binding financial commitments. The agreement requires rich nations to maintain a $100bn a year funding pledge beyond 2020, and to use that figure as a "floor" for further support agreed by 2025.

My thought so far:

There s no doubt that COP21 and the Paris Agreement have surpassed expectations (just look at my pre-COP predictions blog). No wonder they were cheering in the video - a spine tingling moment.

The Kyoto protocol set emission cutting targets for only a small group of developed countries and the US did not even ratify. The Paris agreement breaks down differentiation, uniting all nations regardless of development in a single (partially) legally binding agreement to tackle climate change for the first time in history.

However the Paris agreement and the nationally determined contributions must be stepped up and we can but hope that the legally binding review mechanisms will ensure this.

Although significant, the aspiration of a 1.5C target is meaningless unless the mechanism of the Paris Agreement and individual nations, through the nationally determined contributions really create rapid change. If not, 1.5C and maybe 2C+ will become out of reach before we know it. Only time will tell if the Paris agreement is enough. A long time and too long to have a second  chance. The Paris agreement is the best chance we have got.

COP21: Key outcomes - Part 1

To claps and cheers, on the evening of Saturday 12th of December,  a new landmark climate deal was born.

Barack Obama hailed the Paris agreement "the best chance we save the one planet we have" but noted that "the problem is not solved because of the accord". 

India's Prime minister Narendra Modi tweeted that COP21 had "no winners or losers. Climate justice has won & we are all working towards a greener future".

Matt McGrath, an environmental correspondent for the BBC summed up his thought, saying "I'm not a fan of hyperbole, but it would be churlish to say the adoption of the Paris Agreement was anything other than a globally historic moment". 

India's Prime minister Narendra Modi tweeted his reaction to COP21.

But before I analyse some of the deals components in greater detail - what are the key points? I have copied the key text surrounding what I think are the main areas and provided some additional commentary to help give context.

Keeping temperature rises "well below" 2C:

Article 2 of the Pairs Agreement, (UNFCCC, 2015)

Article 2 sets out to keep global temperatures "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels and endeavors to limit them to 1.5C. This is one area where I am pleasantly surprised by the outcomes of COP21 and what it has achieved. A 1.5C target would have seemed unthinkable a few months ago and it is a big step froward from the 2C target agreed at Copenhagen. As my blog argued 2C is not enough and the risks associated with climate change are moderated with warming limited to 1.5C. However according to the Met Office global temperatures are already set to breach the 1C threshold in 2015. 

Long term goal of zero net emissions:

Article 4 of the Pairs Agreement, (UNFCCC, 2015)

The agreement, as in accordance with the IPCC (2014) findings, recognises the need for net emissions of zero (balance between anthropogenic sources and greenhouse gas sinks) by the second half of the century. The IPCC have , as part of the agreement been invited to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5C (because following Copenhagen they have focused on 2C!). Its is also worth noting the differentiation of responsibility - more on this later!

For Part 2: Click here

COP21: What is the outcome going to be?

COP21 is finally here: What is the outcome going to be? Source BBC/APF

I am very hopeful that a new legally binding agreement can be reached in Paris over the next two weeks. As I concluded in my blog on bottom up versus top down approaches, to me, it seems illogical to completely abandon a top down system that has been at the forefront of negotiations for a new system that is unproven and no more guaranteed to ensure success. Furthermore, the addition of the INDCs (see special blog) at COP21 not only signifies the modification of climate governance to include bottom up approaches but also constructs a path of ever-increasing emission reductions asking countries what they are willing and able to do. I am very hopeful that the INDCs will, as the UNFCCC claim, act as the foundations for a broader new climate agreement that will support sustainable actions nationally and globally.

The 147 leaders delivered strong speaches in favour of climate action on day one of the conference. Yet as Matt McGrath, environmental correspondent at the BBC argues they were 'fine words but divisions run deep'. Although Obama echoed his determined calls for strong action his commitment to an agreement is not a commitment to a legally binding treaty. It is very very unlikely that the US Republican dominated Senate would ratify such an agreement. That said many other leaders called for strong agreements including Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. However Xi Jining still used phrases such as the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities which ring back to the Kyoto days highlighting one area of contention already - fairness.

Now the political leaders have left and the negotiations are getting down to the nitty gritty as John Vidal, the environmental editor of the Guardian who is at the talks argues 'there are mountains to climb over cuts, long term goals, finance, equity, and the principle that the rich countries should act first and dig deeper because they are responsible for the historical emissions'.

As predicted the main areas of contention surround the use of the 2C limit, fairness of a top down approach and Finance. Although the Copenhagen Accord pledged to provide $100 billion a year in financial support for poorer countries from 2020, where that money will come from and how it will be distributed has yet to be agreed and is likely an area of serious contention (see future blog).

Although a legally binding agreement still remains the mantra of COP21 I don't think anyone knows what the outcome is going to really be. All we can do is hope the negotiations and UN conference are successful. As the blog title suggests, it really is Crunch time. I cannot bare to think about what the consequences of failure may be both for climate, but also the processes and methods of ever achieving success most notably the UNFCCC approach. If it fails an alternative will not be found in time.

INDCs - what are they and do they work?

Christiana Figueres thoughts on the INDCs, Source, Twitter.

The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) mark a change of tack in approaches to tackling climate change, utilising a bottom a bottom up approach in addition to top down governance (click here for debate on bottom up/top down approaches), in which countries put forward their pledges in the context of their own national circumstances, capabilities and priorities to reduce climate change.

146 countries representing 86% of the world's carbon emissions filed pledges (UNFCCC, 2015) in the lead up to Paris basically saying what they were willing to do straight up, before the negotiations. The plans represent a significant advance on current trends with much to positive about. One of the most significant findings is that according to the UNFCCC the INDCs will bring average emissions per capita down by as much as 8% in 2025 and 9% by 2030. Furthermore they have the capability of limiting temperature rise to around 2.7 °C by 2100. Other positive findings in the UNFCCC synthesis report (2015) highlight how:

•  The INDCs indicate a significant increase in the number of countries taking climate action
• National processes put in place to prepare the INDCs helped place climate change high on the political agenda of many governments and created a new and significant momentum for action
• Somewhat significantly, the majority of the INDCs also included an adaption component demonstrating the imperative to adapt alongside efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. Past critiques of top down approaches have cited a lack of adaption.

Yet as highlighted in a Nature special the INDCs are still some way off reaching the 2 degree target. The IEA special briefing for COP21 found that the pledges would still result in a increase of 3.7 gigatonnes of CO2 from 2014 to 2030. By 2030 the annual growth in energy related emissions worldwide will slow to just 0.5% a year. Yet they will still be substantial, and will not have come to a halt - "a critical and urgent milestone to achieving the global climate goal". 

Furthermore, the think tank Climate Interactive argues that if no further action is taken after the end of the countries pledge period of 2030 will still result in expected warming in 2100 of 3.5 °C (fig. 1) (with a range of uncertainty of 2.0-4.6 °C). Furthermore, Joe Romm the author of a highly accredited blog argues that the UNFCCC press release above is in fact a little bit misleading in its use of its 2.7°C by 2100 statistic, successfully misleading the Guardian in a recent article. The majority of the INDC pledges end by 2030 so a 2.7 °C temperature change prediction is based on the rather large assumption that countries fulfill all their pledges up to 2030 and then continue to reduce emissions after 2030. The INDCs no longer seem so rosy.  However, if further action is taken these figures could improve. There are large unknowns. Yet the the 3.5 °C calculation does assume that no unmodeled carbon cycle feedback kicks in such as permafrost melting (Romm 2015).

The Climate Interactive scoreboard, Source Climate Interactive.

However, on balance I agree with Christiana Figueres, executive director of the UNFCCC when she argues that although the INDCs do not lower future temperatures enough they are significant improvement on the warming predicted by the IPCC. It would be somewhat naive to expect the INDCs to solve all the climate problems straight away. Figueres has stressed that the INDCs are just the first step. They are only relevant over the medium term and were never going to reach 2 degrees by themselves. The are "a departure point and not a destination, the Paris agreement will construct a path of ever-increasing emission reductions with periodic checkpoints of progress until we get to the 2 degree pathway" Figueres (2015). There are also hopes that a regular review mechanism will also be agreed in Paris, by which the INDCs could be ratcheted up in further steps providing a foundation for higher ambition. 

As the conclusion of the synthesis report reminds us "parties have submitted their INDCs with the understanding that they would be anchored in a broader new climate agreement that would support sustainable actions nationally and globally". We can but hope that this really happens in Paris over the next two weeks.

Global climate marches: Powerful, Inspiring and creating a sense of hope.

The London Climate March, Source: own photo.

I have just got back from the Climate March in London on the Eve of COP21 and what an experience. According to organisers a record-breaking 50,000 people attended in London, almost double last years London Climate March. 

I attended the march (my first) and found the experience powerful and inspiring.  Somewhat surprisingly it also filled me with a sense of hope. With 50,000 people marching alongside you calling for change it gave me a sense that climate is moving up our agendas and an agreement may be realised in Paris. As I have seen described elsewhere, it gave me that goose bump feeling. I met the march half way through at Trafalgar square and watched people go by for over fifteen minutes but there was still no impression that it would ever end. From then we walked as part of the crowds down Whitehall to Parliament square with people of all ages and from all over the world - surely a sign of solidarity on the streets of London. World leaders are you listening? The march was completely peaceful, respectful and friendly and very well organised. A massive thank you should go out to the organisers, volunteers and police.

The London Climate March, Source: own Photo.

Climate Marches began hours before in Australia moving east to west with 45,000 marchers in Sydney, 3,000 in the Philippines, 5,000 in Bangladesh, 20,000 in Madrid and Rome to name a few and the Americas still to come. In Paris, where protests were banned following the Paris attacks thousands of pairs of shoes have been left in the Place de la Republique as an instillation, including a pair of the Popes! A peaceful human chain was also created with 10,000 people holding hands in a human line over 3km stretching the originally proposed march route in Paris.

Source: David Shukman, Twitter.

Source: Jamie Henn, Twitter.

However, it appears as ever that a few make it their priority to undermine the peaceful climate marches of hundreds of thousands. Reports on the Guardian Live page claim that the day of peaceful, respectful and highly moving protests in Paris disintegrated into a stand off between groups of anarchist protesters and riot police, with police using tear gas to clear the area. Incredibly sad making is that according to another reporter many of the flowers and candles left in tribute to the 130 people who died in the attacks have been trampled on and destroyed. How disrespectful and distant from what the climate marches are about. No wonder 350.org the global march organiser has distanced itself from the violent protests. I cannot also help but feel that there is also a focus on the negative minority rather than the positive, peaceful and hopeful majority.

One of my favorite stories emerging from Paris is the 'Brandalism' campaign with more than 600 artworks critiquing corporate sponsors of the UN summit installed in advertising spaces across Paris, including some politicians too! - click here to see more. 

For a great gallery of the climate marches across the globe click here. Closer to home even the BT tower is getting involved!! Next couple of Blogs are on the INDCs and a final pre-summit synopsis.

Source: BT Better Future, Twitter.

Some videos!

So in a bit of a break from all my recent long blog posts on the history of climate change negotiations and on the debate between top down and bottom up approaches here are two videos which I have since found which explain the topics in a different light and outline some similar arguments (phew!).

Enjoy! 

A history of climate change negotiations:

The Paris Climate Conference explained.

'Top down' or 'bottom up' - different discourses on tackling climate change. Part 2.

So what should it be? Top down or bottom up or can you do both?
Source:Google images

For part 1 click here

Despite the arguably proven philosophy of the global deal, Falkner et al. (2010) go onto argue that the relative failures of Copenhagen demonstrate that the strategy may have outlived its usefulness, experiencing diminishing returns resulting from shifts in climate politics. Obstacles to international cooperation, include a lack of political will among major emitters with many counties lacking necessary domestic support. Previously of the five leading emitters of CO2 (China, US, EU, Russia and India) only the EU has strongly supported a legally binding agreement (although this may have changed recently - see future blog on pledges in the lead up to Paris).

Furthermore structural shifts in the international political economy also mark serious challenges for the global deal (Falkner et al. 2010). Whilst EU/US divisions used to be the main are of contention, the main divide is now between emerging and developed nations. The changing balance of power significantly strengthens the veto power of developing nations. Whilst the US at Copenhagen made its commitments dependent on those made by major emerging economies, China like may other major emerging economies demanded that industrialised countries bear a greater historical responsibility and thus should take a lead in controlling emissions, with poorer countries needing to catch up economically before heavy responsibility is placed upon them. In addition, debates also surround the effectiveness of the UN negotiation framework (Falkner et al. 2010), with two years being spent preparing for the conference, yet the negotiation texts prepared were completely ignored in the Accord. Progress was also primarily made using smaller and more exclusive negotiation groups and new multi-track diplomacy, a break from the traditional negotiation.

This so called failure of the top-down approach has led to the development of discourses arguing for a bottom-up approach to climate policy. One paper uses a simple but effective analogy to demonstrate the logic of a bottom up approach (Rayner, 2010).

Q: How do you eat an elephant

A: One Piece at a time

The paper argues that despite its dominance, an 'elegant' top down approach of legally binding targets enabled through carbon trading markets underestimates market complexities and overestimate the willingness of politicians to priorities climate change over welfare issues. It is also argued that top down approaches neglect the importance of adaption. Instead a bottom up approach:

'emphasizes the ‘direction of travel’ over targets and timetables and approaches the development of effective measures to minimize global warming through a diverse range of policy actions, originating from the ‘bottom up’ within nations, based on their own institutional, technological, economic and political capacities; but which cumulatively will lead to a fundamental technological shift in global patterns of energy and land use' (Rayner, 2010)

The bottom up approaches requires climate change policies to be designed and implemented at the lowest feasible level of organization. I.e when something can be done at lower organizational levels it should be. A bottom up approach also focuses directly on adaption which is by definition local in nature. I agree with Rayner when he argues that although adaption is by no means a substitute for mitigation it is vital for saving lives and bring immediate benefits to humanity. Arguments in favour of bottom up approaches also highlight the huge potential for cities to tackle climate change through tackling issues of energy, transport, water and spatial development. These arguments are in fact echoed by a new report by the UN which confirms crucial role of cities and companies.

A further discourse put forward as an alternative to the global deal is the 'building blocks approach'  (Falkner et al. 2010) which markets itself as closer to a global deal strategy than a pure bottom up approach, with the long-term objective of an integrated policy regime, yet disregards with 'a dose of political realism'the idea of a legally binding treaty. Furthermore, despite distancing itself from the bottom up approach it has many similarities. The building block approach:

'disaggregates global climate governance into component parts that can be developed in a more flexible manner, involving different sets of negotiations based on varying political geometries and regime types...Rather than wait for a single agreement to cover all governance mechanisms, individual agreements are developed on matters such as technology innovation and diffusion, adaptation funding, deforestation and sectoral approaches for industrial sectors'.

In my opinion a lot can be learnt from the bottom up approach, there are clearly flaws in pursuing a top down approach, which is clearly creating diminishing returns for climate governance. Yet, I am also concerned by the true ability of a bottom up approach to promote change, with its 'modest and practical approach' (Rayner, 2010). I am concerned that completely abandoning an integrated climate regime, or top down approach and focusing solely on bottom up approaches removes the stimulus for developing ambitious domestic policies, enhancing the lowest common denominator (Falkner et al. 2010), as well as potentially loosing the other benefits of a global strategy outlined previously.

To me, it seems illogical to completely abandon a top down system that as been at the forefront of negotiations for a new system that is unproven and no more guaranteed to ensure success. Climate change is a global problem and requires a global response. Yet the top down approach does require modification. It seems logical instead to pursue a legally binding global deal that also combines and purses elements of both bottom up and building block approaches creating a complex regime with integrated management. Why should each approach be exclusive of one another. Surely combing the most effective elements covers all basis and maximizes the chances of climate change being tackled effectively. Such an approach in fact appears to be emerging in the lead up to the COP21. The climate talks are still pursuing a new international agreement on climate and top down approaches will be used to manage the new Green Climate Fund and the $100 billion dollars a year by 2020 pledged to help developing countries cope with climate change. However, the INDCs agreed in Lima as part of a new approach mark the combination of top down systems with  a bottom-up approach in which countries put forward their agreements in the context of their own national circumstances, capabilities and priorities to reduce climate change. How successful this new approach is still up for debate. However, my next blogs aims to answer this by analysing this new approach along with the other initiatives that have been intended to spur action on in the run-up to Paris. 

'Top down' or 'bottom up' - different discourses on tackling climate change. Part 1.

The top down approach: The opening conference at COP15
Source: Wikipedia 

Regardless of whether you consider the Copenhagen conference a success or failure (see my last blog), the failure to reach even the lightest nonbinding deceleration led many to question the bleak prospects of the consensus-based UN process for responding to climate change (Dimitrov, 2010). Not only did the conference failed to reach a global climate deal but also 'laid bare the deep fissures in climate politics that make a global deal ever less likely' (Falkner et al., 2010). It has been suggested that Realpolitik became the norm in Copenhagen with promotion of national interests over the pursuit of a costly global climate solution. Does this, as Falkner et al., 2010 argue, signal the end of the global deal strategy?

Since 1992 governments of the world have pursued a strong, integrated and comprehensive regulatory framework system for managing climate change. However, Keohane et al., (2011) argues that efforts have instead created a varied array of narrowly-focused regulatory regimes which they call the "regime complex for climate change". These have been crafted in a context of diverse interests, high uncertainty, and shifting linkages. They are not integrated, comprehensive, or arranged in a clear hierarchy. Furthermore, there is no single climate change problem, each with attributes, challenges and political constituencies. These problems are associated with diverse interests, power, information and beliefs creating significant challenges for international cooperation (for greater detail see Keohane et al., 2011).

All this points towards the infeasibility of a strong comprehensive regime, underlining how challenging an international problem climate change is to manage. Yet the global deal strategy has continued to prevail in international environmental politics. Why? Falkner et al. (2010) suggests four reasons why it still remains dominant today.

1. A global legally binding treaty that contains firm and measurable commitments are more likely to be effective in securing lasting emission reductions than a system of voluntary pledges.
2. Multilateral environmental policy focused on creating a comprehensive regulatory regime has led to the growth of vital institutions that support global environmental governance (Scientific, reporting, financial aid etc.).
3. Firm commitments which form part of a legally binding deal sends strong messages to private actors throughout the economy and private sector, reducing uncertainty and enabling the reduction in transaction costs promoting proactive responses.
4. Regardless of the success of achieving a global deal, striving for such an outcome helps to maintain political momentum in international negotiations, setting high ambitions and expectations to maintain pressure for positive progress.

For part 2 click here

So what's happened before? A short history of UN climate negotiations.

Obama, Merkel Brown and Sarkozy at last minute negotiations on the final night at Copenhagen.
Will Paris end in such a last minute grasp? Photo Credit: Guardian/Getty Images 

Before analysing the initiatives (including the INDC pledges) that were intended to spur action on in the run-up to Paris, over my next two blogs I am going to outline the history of global climate governance. This will culminate in analysis of the varying approaches and  discourses on international climate policy questioning where COP21 sits within the spectrum.

The first phase of global negotiations on climate change began in force in 1992, when governments met in Rio de Janeiro successfully negotiating the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the convention itself did not set binding specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries (leading to some disappointment), it recognized climate change as a serious threat and established the basis for future action. This was achieved through the defining of a common long term objective for the stabilization of greenhouse gases and outlined vital principles for future policy relating to inter/intra generational equity, common but differentiated responsibilities, precaution, cost-effectiveness, sustainable development and the international economy (Bodansky, 1993). Bodanksy argues in his highly cited paper that reaching an agreement in Rio, involving 140 states with very different interests and ideologies, in such a limited period of time was a "considerable achievement".

The UNFCCC paved the way for negotiation of a more specific protocol with binding commitments, culminating in the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. This included differentiated commitments by industrialised countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by,  5 per cent of 1990 emissions by 2012. However, Kyoto had its flaws. Due to prolonged problems with obtaining enough countries to ratify the protocol, Kyoto only entered into force in 2005. Furthermore, the Protocol was also limited in scope to Annex 1 countries, excluding developing countries, and critically the United States (the largest net emitter at the time and the largest cumulative emitter to date) who failed to ratify the deal, somewhat undermining the Protocol (Falkner et al., 2010).

Furthermore, the protocols commitment period ended in 2012 meaning it was over as soon as it started, requiring further negotiations to secure a post Kyoto global deal. An action plan that set the course for a new agreement to take over from Kyoto was agreed in 2007 at Bali (after much drama). The infamous Copenhagen conference (COP15) in December 2009 was intended to be the deadline to resolve debates about the post-2012 climate regime. Key questions surrounded whether the protocol should be extended in a second commitment period, should the new agreement be adopted under the Framework convention addressing the emissions of countries that did not ratify or were not under the jurisdiction of Kyoto (developing countries). Or should Kyoto be replaced through a more comprehensive agreement, targeting both the developed and developing (Bodansky, 2010).

Although there were high expectations that the conference would mark a significant breakthrough, hopes for a full-fledged legal agreement proved unrealistic. Instead after two weeks of negotiations only a political agreement, the Copenhagen Accord could be agreed upon. The Accord was very brief, two and a half pages effectively trashing the draft texts of nearly 200 pages . One major development however was the inclusions of a the long-term goal of limiting climate change to no more than two degrees Celsius (2°C) (Dimitrov, 2010).

One other important shift in Copenhagen was the focus on developing country emissions, "representing a significant reorientation of the climate change negotiations" (Bodansky, 2010). The developed-developing country debate moved from the sidelines where it had been since the Berlin Mandate in 1995 (which excluded any new commitments from non-annex 1 countries in negotiations for Kyoto) to center stage following the Bali Conference. Developed countries argued that any post-2012 agreement should include all of the major economies, regardless of development status. Developing countries argued, somewhat understandably that they are not as historically responsible, lack the propensity to respond and thus should not be expected to  undertake specific agreements. The Accord continues to have a differentiated structure but (Bodansky, 2010) argues that it begins to break the firewall between developed and developing countries: developed countries’ are required to have economy-wide emission targets, which will be subject to international monitoring and review (MRV), whereas developing countries’ actions, which will be subject to international MRV only if a mitigation action receives outside assistance, and otherwise to national MRV. Subtle nuances but significant nonetheless.

The Accord also specified the Establishment of a mechanism for "REDD-Plus" (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) and recognized the importance of adaption in addition to mitigation in the fight against climate change.  Somewhat significantly for the developed/developing debate the conference also saw establishment of mechanisms for financial assistance including the goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year by 2020 to help countries adapt and mitigate. However, moving forward to Paris questions still remain unanswered with regards the sources of finance and what governance arrangements should be put in place (Bodansky, 2010).

Despite the progress, many commentators labelled the Copenhagen Conference a "failure whose magnitude exceeded our worst fears, and the resulting Copenhagen Accord was a desperate attempt to mask the failure"(Dimitrov, 2010). Even the accord was not formally adopted and instead "taken note of" following a coup by Bolivia, Sudan and Venezuela  raising questions (see next blog) about future prospects of the consensus-based UN approach (absence of formal objection) (Falkner et al., 2010). Since Copenhagen the development that stands out most to me is the development of INDCs, the ground rules of which were determined at COP20 in Lima. More on this next time!

Regardless of whether Copenhagen and ts predecessors were successful or failures they has paved the way for and set up Paris where it really is crunch time. What really matters is that the talks are successful. However, following the 'failures' of Copenhagen many academics began to question the future of the 'top down' UN process for responding climate change calling for 'bottom up' or 'building block approaches'. My next blog will analyse these claims in greater deal questioning whether a top down approach will ever be successful.

2°C target - Is it really enough? Or better than nothing?

Planetary health - Is a two degree target really the correct indicator and target of planetary health? 

Credit: Victor and Fennel 2014.

A comment posted on my Paris climate conference introductory blog asked whether I believed COP21 has set itself up to fail with its target to keep global warming below 2°C. This blog aims to provide an answer, questioning why 2°C been chosen as the target?

Despite the controversy of  COP15 in 2009, the Copenhagen Accord included for the first time the long-term goal of limiting the maximum global average temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels putting a number on what constituted the limit for dangerous climate change. 

According to all the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed emission scenarios, surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century (fig.1).

Global average surface temperature change from 2006 to 2100 relative to 1986-2005.

The increase in global mean surface temperature by the end of the 21st century relative to 1986–2005 is likely to be 0.3°C to 1.7°C under RCP* 2.6, 1.1°C to 2.6°C under RCP 4.5, 1.4°C to 3.1°C under RCP 6.0 and 2.6°C to 4.8°C under RCP 8.5 (IPCC 2014). Without any additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today warming is more likely than not to exceed  4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Risks from climate and temperature
range for five reasons of concern.

Five Reasons For Concern (RFCs) aggregate climate change risks and illustrate the implications of warming and of adaptation limits for people, economies and ecosystems (IPCC 2014).

Figure 2 shows these RFC's. The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C by the end of the century (>1000 ppm  CO₂) include substantial (very high/high) species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, consequential constraints on common human activities and limited potential for adaptation in some cases. Some risks of climate change, such as risks to unique and threatened systems and risks associated with extreme weather events, are moderate to high at temperatures 1°C to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet 2°C is still the target of COP21.

The IPCC have found cumulative emissions of CO₂ to largely determine global surface warming by the end of the 21st century and beyond meaning significant cuts in emissions over the short term can substantially reduce risks of climate change over the longer term.

Table 1 shows that emissions scenarios leading to CO₂ equivalent concentrations in 2100 of about 450 ppm or lower are likely to maintain warming below 2°C (IPCC). However, this requires  40 to 70% global anthropogenic GHG emission reductions by 2050 compared to 2010, and emissions levels near zero or below in 2100. Interestingly scenarios which more likely than no limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100 are characterized by concentrations below 430 parts per million (ppm) CO₂ by 2100, and 2050 emission reduction between 70% and 95% below 2010. Scenarios of greater than 1000 ppm  CO₂ make it almost impossible to limit global warming to less than 3°C.

Key characteristics of the different temperature scenarios showing the necessary emission reductions and relative likelihood. 

2°C would be a massive milestone in curbing global warming requiring dramatic reductions in green house gases. Yet, somewhat hidden by the aura of the 2°C target and shown by figure 2 is that even two degrees may be too high. As argued by climate activist David Spratt a 2°C is a "very unsafe target" marking instead the boundary between dangerous and very dangerous climate change. Even though the IPCC adopt the 2°C target these views do appear to be echoed by the IPCC findings (fig. 2). As a recent Guardian article argued, if global warming is limited to 2°C, warming will still destroy most coral reefs and glaciers and melt significant parts of the ice caps. Even under RCP 2.6 sea level is still expected to rise 0.4 (IPCC 2014). An even lower target is needed. Back in 2008 it was argued that an atmospheric CO₂ target of at most 350 ppm is required (Hansen et al), 100ppm lower than the requirement of the 2°C target. "We should therefore be striving to limit warming to as far below 2°C as possible. However, that will require a level of ambition that we have not yet seen.” (Professor Chris Field of Stanford University in Guardian article). 

Not only does the 2°C target not appear significant enough there have been calls in Nature for the target to be ditched and replaced (Victor and Fennel 2014), arguing the target is "politically and scientifically... wrongheaded". 

They argue that politically it has allowed governments to pretend they are taken action when in reality they are in fact they are achieving very little. Chasing this goal has allowed governments to ignore the need for massive adaption to climate change. I for one presumed (wrongly) that the 2 degree target specified for COP21 and repeated like a manta, cited thousands of time in newspapers, journals and even in the IPCC report was sufficient enough to limit warming. Only looking at the evidence has shown me otherwise.

Victor and Fenell also argue the target is "effectively unachievable" citing feasibility and cooperation. Again evidence supports this.  In September last year PwC issued a report arguing that there is a "disconnect between the global climate negotiations aiming for a 2°C limit on global warming, but national pledges may only manage to limit it to 3°C, and current trajectory actually on course for 4°C." This is echoed by analysis of the INDCs (climate pledges) put forward by 146 countries in the lead up to COP21 released last week which suggest that the pledges will only reduce warming to 2.7°C by 2100. However are these really reasons for why a 2°C target should be scratched? Are they not just reasons for more action?

Scientifically they suggest the basis for the 2°C goal is "tenuous" arguing that a single index of climate change is impossible calling for a set of indicators to gauge various forcing and stresses. The Planetary Boundaries framework (Steffan et al. 2015) is a clear example of such an approach assessing and defining a safe operating space for humanity based on 9 'Planetary Boundaries'. That said the 2°C is not really just single metric, it is closely linked to a multitude of risks (Schellnhuber 2014). The IPCC for instance have outlined the GHG emission reductions required to reach the target. Instead, a 2°C goal creates an easily comprehendible bench mark with more complex indicators behind it.

I agree with Victor and Fenell that a new of set of planetary indicators needs to be developed and should become the basis of climate policy - over time. As the limitations of the Planetary Boundaries Framework show such an approach is not yet ready to take the batten. I certainly do not agree that COP21 should be a technical conference developing such metrics as they suggest. Although their article sets out to tackle inaction, debating metrics just creates more distraction when COP21 really is crunch time. 

Moreover in terms of communicating the importance of a deal in Paris to the governments and public a 2°C target has much more weight. In response to the article Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Angela Merkel's climate advisor) says "I am communicating to heads of state and you have to keep it neat and simple. It was difficult enough to commuicate a 2°C target ... but it seems to have sunk in. How should I communicate to policy makers who have an attention span of 10 minutes a set of volatility signals … this is politically so naive”. However imperfect, a target that is sinking in and generating change is better than overly complicated incomprehendible one.

I do not believe COP21 has set itself up to fail with its target to keep global warming below 2°C. The target appears to have created an understandable metric promoting people, businesses and governments to respond to climate change in a way not previously experienced. The metric is not a long term solution. A new set of internationally recognized planetary indicators should be be agreed upon, but 2°C will suffice for the time being and overall metrics will always have a role to play. However, COP21 is setting itself up to fail the planet by only providing half the answer. 2°C global warming is still too high. We must strive to limit warming as far below 2°C and this should become the focus of international climate policy. The target is not enough, but it is better than nothing.

*RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway. A set of four scenarios identified by their approximate total radiative forcing in year 2100 relative to 1750: 2.6 W m-2 for RCP2.6, 4.5 W m-2 for RCP4.5, 6.0 W m-2 for RCP6.0, and 8.5 W m-2 for RCP8.5 (IPCC 2013).

Mini blog

UN Climate action tweet this morning showing

the slow down of emissions due to INDCs. 

Apparently it is not yet enough..

As COP21 is such a hot topic at the moment I am going to try and do a series of mini blogs between my main posts that cover some of the latest news articles as well as a few interactive bits and bobs that I cannot fit into the main series.

News:

Just after I finished my post on whether we really need a new international agreement on climate change I came across an article on the WHO. They argue that COP21 is more important for everyone's health than might be at first appreciated with interventions to tackle climate change likely to have knock on benefits for our health. 7 million people die a year as a result of air pollution and this is only exacerbated by climate change. Alarmingly experts also warned in June that the threat to human health from climate change is so great that it could undo the last 50 years of gains in the development of global health. These articles are in my opinion further compelling evidence for the importance of an international agreement on climate starting in 31 days in Paris.

News emerging this morning (BBC/Guardian) is that the climate pledges put forward by 146 countries in the lead up to COP21 are not sufficient enough according to the UN to limit warming to the target 2 degrees (see next blog) with a capability of reducing warming to only  2.7C by 2100. The pledges known as the INDC's or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions are part of a spur of action in the run up to climate talks in Paris and have been received as a positive shift in policy by asking nations what they are willing and able to do to curb emissions. The recent news announced by Christina Figueres, the UN climate chief potentially comes as a damaging blow. Nevertheless the INDCs still mark a significant improvement from no action at all. A future blog over the coming weeks will analyse the INDCs in greater detail looking at the pledges of individual countries as well as other initiatives in the lead up to COP21.

Climate Neutral Now:

One further UN initiative that everyone can try themselves is Climate Neutral Now which allows you to measure your carbon footprint, reduce and offset though UN certified emission reductions projects which are being added to all the time. It is quite alarming to see how large our carbon footprints really are. As more and more projects are added it seems like it could be an effective way to act and offset.

Do we really need a new international agreement on climate?

President Obama in the State of the Union Address, Jan 2015.

Photo Credit: National Memo.

  “No challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change,” argued Barack Obama in January 2015.

This recognition of climate change by the world’s second largest polluter , a nation who previously remained firmly outside the Kyoto Protocol and scuppered the UN’s Copenhagen climate-change conference in 2009 should give a slight glimmer of hope for the upcoming COP21. But why is climate change such a great challenge? What are the facts behind it?  Does it really merit a new international agreement on climate in Paris?

The global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, measured in parts per million (ppm), is the primary indicator of recent climate change. The highly cited Hansen et al. (2008) paper investigated the target level of atmospheric CO₂ that humanity should aim for in order to preserve a planet similar to that on which life and civilization have developed and adapted. When the paper was written, these 'safe levels' required CO₂ to be reduced from 385ppm (parts per million) to at most 350ppm. However, the latest observations of atmospheric CO₂ for September 2015 show these levels to have risen to 396.86 (fig. 1). Even more alarmingly atmospheric CO₂ levels broke the 400ppm milestone in March this year sending a stark warning before COP21.

Figure 1: Monthly mean atmospheric carbon dioxide at
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.

The IPCC, the leading international body for the assessment of climate change reported in its Fifth Assessment (2013) that the Warming of the climate system is 'unequivocal', with many of the observed changes since the 1950's being unprecedented over decades to millennia highlighting how human influence on the climate system is clear. The full report is 1535 pages long and so some of the key findings from the summary are presented below.

• Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the pre-industrial era have driven large increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) (fig. 2).

Figure 2: Credit: IPCC (2014).

• About half of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years (fig. 3)

  

  Figure 3: Credit: IPCC (2014).

• Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85°C over the period 1880 to 2012 (fig. 4)

Figure 4: Credit: IPCC (2014).

• Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. The upper 75m warmed by 0.11°C per decade between 1971-2010
• The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO₂, causing ocean acidification; the pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1, corresponding to a 26% increase in acidity.
• The average rate of ice loss from glaciers around the world, excluding glaciers on the periphery of the ice sheets, was very likely 226 [91 to 361] Gt yr−1 (gigatonnes) over the period 1971 to 2009, and very likely 275 [140 to 410] Gt yr−1 over the period 1993 to 2009.
• Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19m [0.17 to 0.21] (fig. 5). The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia.

  

  Figure 4: Credit: IPCC (2014).

In addition a highly topical piece of research was published this year on the Planetary Boundaries Framework. Although arguably subjective and somewhat controversial the paper provides a useful framework for assessing and defining a safe operating space for humanity based on the biophysical processes that regulate the Earth system. The research suggests that four of the ES processes/features (climate change, bio-sphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, and land-system change) exceed the proposed planetary boundaries.

The planetary boundaries framework Steffan et al. (2015)

The recognition that human activities have had major environmental impacts on the climate system has led to considerable debate within the scientific community with a push for the Anthropocene (the period of time when humans have had major, global impacts on the earths systems) to be designated as a formal geological epoch, leaving the era of the Holocene (Mackay, 2015).  Much of the debate surrounds the Anthropocene's start date. Crutzen and Stoermer (2000) who originally proposed the epoch suggest its beginning at 1850 in line with the start of the industrial revolution. More recently Steffan et al. (2015) propose the beginning of the great acceleration (post 1950) as a start date arguing that only after this point is there is 'clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities', based upon socio-economic and earth system trends. However, Ruddiman (2013) suggests that pre-industrial temperature changes caused by humans could be more than double the anthropogenic warming caused by the industrial era, more than doubling the cumulative effects of humans on global temperature to date.

It has been widely reported that that a 'hiatus' in the upward trend of global surface temperatures occurred between 1998 and 2012. However, a recent paper in Science suggests that this hiatus never occurred. Global trends are higher than those reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. It should come as no surprise then that 2014 was the hottest year on record  with Noaa reporting that global average temperatures over land and sea surface for the year were 0.69°C above the 20th-century average.  Again, July 2015 was the hottest month on the earth since records began.

So what do these changes mean for the global economy? A new study published in Nature argues that we have dramatically underestimated the damage that anthropogenic climate change will do the global economy. The paper investigated data from 160 countries between 1960-2010 and found that productivity peaks at an average local temperature of 13°C. If regional temperatures are cooler, then warming benefits the local economy, but past that peak temperature, warming reduces economic productivity. There was only weak evidence that global warming would not impact economic growth in wealthy countries, even though it has previously been assumed wealthier countries would have the resources to adapt to a changing climate. If future adaptation follows previous progress, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100. Moreover poor counties will be preferentially harder hit reinforcing the reality that poorer countries which arguably contribute least to the problem are the most vulnerable to the consequences.

Another somewhat alarming discovery published in Nature climate change estimates the economic impact of carbon dioxide and methane being released from permafrost as it thaws resulting from rapid arctic warming. It found that by 2200, when these emissions are expected to peak, the costs could be 0.7% of global GDP. These findings are echoed by Mark Carney, the governor of the bank of England who last month warned that measures to avoid catastrophic climate change are essential to avoid financial crisis and falling living standards calling climate change the 'tragedy of the horizon' - imposing a cost on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentive to fix.

This blog has only begun to scratch the surface into the very real, alarming and critical threat of anthropogenic climate change that faces humanity. I believe the evidence is too great for international inaction to continue. I have broadly outlined the extent and scope of the problem and why the Paris talks in December really are Crunch time for a new legally binding agreement that will enable us to combat climate change effectively and boost the transition towards resilient, low-carbon societies and economies. Next time I will discuss what climate changes are projected for the future. A particular focus will be on the 2°C target and why it has been set as the goal for global climate policy (and the aim for COP21) following the Copenhagen talks in 2009.