COP21: What is the outcome going to be?

COP21 is finally here: What is the outcome going to be? Source BBC/APF

I am very hopeful that a new legally binding agreement can be reached in Paris over the next two weeks. As I concluded in my blog on bottom up versus top down approaches, to me, it seems illogical to completely abandon a top down system that has been at the forefront of negotiations for a new system that is unproven and no more guaranteed to ensure success. Furthermore, the addition of the INDCs (see special blog) at COP21 not only signifies the modification of climate governance to include bottom up approaches but also constructs a path of ever-increasing emission reductions asking countries what they are willing and able to do. I am very hopeful that the INDCs will, as the UNFCCC claim, act as the foundations for a broader new climate agreement that will support sustainable actions nationally and globally.

The 147 leaders delivered strong speaches in favour of climate action on day one of the conference. Yet as Matt McGrath, environmental correspondent at the BBC argues they were 'fine words but divisions run deep'. Although Obama echoed his determined calls for strong action his commitment to an agreement is not a commitment to a legally binding treaty. It is very very unlikely that the US Republican dominated Senate would ratify such an agreement. That said many other leaders called for strong agreements including Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. However Xi Jining still used phrases such as the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities which ring back to the Kyoto days highlighting one area of contention already - fairness.

Now the political leaders have left and the negotiations are getting down to the nitty gritty as John Vidal, the environmental editor of the Guardian who is at the talks argues 'there are mountains to climb over cuts, long term goals, finance, equity, and the principle that the rich countries should act first and dig deeper because they are responsible for the historical emissions'.

As predicted the main areas of contention surround the use of the 2C limit, fairness of a top down approach and Finance. Although the Copenhagen Accord pledged to provide $100 billion a year in financial support for poorer countries from 2020, where that money will come from and how it will be distributed has yet to be agreed and is likely an area of serious contention (see future blog).

Although a legally binding agreement still remains the mantra of COP21 I don't think anyone knows what the outcome is going to really be. All we can do is hope the negotiations and UN conference are successful. As the blog title suggests, it really is Crunch time. I cannot bare to think about what the consequences of failure may be both for climate, but also the processes and methods of ever achieving success most notably the UNFCCC approach. If it fails an alternative will not be found in time.