COP21: Key outcomes - Part 2

Laurent Fabius, chair of the 2015 UNFCCC and Christiana Figueres,
executive secretary of the UNFCCC celebrating the
adoption of the Paris agreement. Source: (BBC,2015).

For part 1 click here

Review mechanism 

A key component of the agreement, and a vital one to ensure that the 1.5 degree target is met is a reviewing mechanism. There will be a review of what countries are proposing by 2019 and followed by a global stocktake (review) in 2023 and every five years after used to enhance and update nationally determined contributions.

Progression over time:

The first thing to note is that although the original aim of the agreement (Paris, 2015) was to reach, for the first time, a universal, legally binding agreement, the Paris agreement is in fact part legally binding and partly voluntary.

The aspects of the agreement that are legal include the obligation for countries to set nationally determined contributions (emissions targets) and the review mechanism. Furthermore, each "successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression". This is a vital component for reaching the 1.5C target as the current INDCs submitted, at best have the capability of limiting temperature rises to 2.7C by 2100 (see INDCs blog).

However, under the Paris agreement the targets themselves will not be legally binding. Instead the UN is banking on peer pressure to ensure that the INDCs achieve what they have been designed to do. That said, as Matt McGrath highlights, peer pressure has been successful thus far in ensuring 187 countries lodged INDCs in the run up to COP21 (BBC, 2015)

Equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities:

The Paris agreement marks a significant change from the Kyoto protocol which excluded developing countries and marks a positive shift from Copenhagen where developed/developing debates raged surrounding historical responsibility. The Paris agreement is designed to get around differentiation, recognising equity and the principle of common responsibilities (we are all in this together) and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances (levels of development). Over time developing countries will do more and more with assistance provided from developed countries.

Climate finance:

Climate finance and the $100 billion climate fund pledged in Copenhagen to help with adaption were predicted to be one of the biggest areas of contention going into COP21, and 'grey areas' such as where the money is coming from still remain. That said the agreement does include new legally binding financial commitments. The agreement requires rich nations to maintain a $100bn a year funding pledge beyond 2020, and to use that figure as a "floor" for further support agreed by 2025.

My thought so far:

There s no doubt that COP21 and the Paris Agreement have surpassed expectations (just look at my pre-COP predictions blog). No wonder they were cheering in the video - a spine tingling moment.

The Kyoto protocol set emission cutting targets for only a small group of developed countries and the US did not even ratify. The Paris agreement breaks down differentiation, uniting all nations regardless of development in a single (partially) legally binding agreement to tackle climate change for the first time in history.

However the Paris agreement and the nationally determined contributions must be stepped up and we can but hope that the legally binding review mechanisms will ensure this.

Although significant, the aspiration of a 1.5C target is meaningless unless the mechanism of the Paris Agreement and individual nations, through the nationally determined contributions really create rapid change. If not, 1.5C and maybe 2C+ will become out of reach before we know it. Only time will tell if the Paris agreement is enough. A long time and too long to have a second  chance. The Paris agreement is the best chance we have got.

COP21: Key outcomes - Part 1

To claps and cheers, on the evening of Saturday 12th of December,  a new landmark climate deal was born.

Barack Obama hailed the Paris agreement "the best chance we save the one planet we have" but noted that "the problem is not solved because of the accord". 

India's Prime minister Narendra Modi tweeted that COP21 had "no winners or losers. Climate justice has won & we are all working towards a greener future".

Matt McGrath, an environmental correspondent for the BBC summed up his thought, saying "I'm not a fan of hyperbole, but it would be churlish to say the adoption of the Paris Agreement was anything other than a globally historic moment". 

India's Prime minister Narendra Modi tweeted his reaction to COP21.

But before I analyse some of the deals components in greater detail - what are the key points? I have copied the key text surrounding what I think are the main areas and provided some additional commentary to help give context.

Keeping temperature rises "well below" 2C:

Article 2 of the Pairs Agreement, (UNFCCC, 2015)

Article 2 sets out to keep global temperatures "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels and endeavors to limit them to 1.5C. This is one area where I am pleasantly surprised by the outcomes of COP21 and what it has achieved. A 1.5C target would have seemed unthinkable a few months ago and it is a big step froward from the 2C target agreed at Copenhagen. As my blog argued 2C is not enough and the risks associated with climate change are moderated with warming limited to 1.5C. However according to the Met Office global temperatures are already set to breach the 1C threshold in 2015. 

Long term goal of zero net emissions:

Article 4 of the Pairs Agreement, (UNFCCC, 2015)

The agreement, as in accordance with the IPCC (2014) findings, recognises the need for net emissions of zero (balance between anthropogenic sources and greenhouse gas sinks) by the second half of the century. The IPCC have , as part of the agreement been invited to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5C (because following Copenhagen they have focused on 2C!). Its is also worth noting the differentiation of responsibility - more on this later!

For Part 2: Click here

COP21: What is the outcome going to be?

COP21 is finally here: What is the outcome going to be? Source BBC/APF

I am very hopeful that a new legally binding agreement can be reached in Paris over the next two weeks. As I concluded in my blog on bottom up versus top down approaches, to me, it seems illogical to completely abandon a top down system that has been at the forefront of negotiations for a new system that is unproven and no more guaranteed to ensure success. Furthermore, the addition of the INDCs (see special blog) at COP21 not only signifies the modification of climate governance to include bottom up approaches but also constructs a path of ever-increasing emission reductions asking countries what they are willing and able to do. I am very hopeful that the INDCs will, as the UNFCCC claim, act as the foundations for a broader new climate agreement that will support sustainable actions nationally and globally.

The 147 leaders delivered strong speaches in favour of climate action on day one of the conference. Yet as Matt McGrath, environmental correspondent at the BBC argues they were 'fine words but divisions run deep'. Although Obama echoed his determined calls for strong action his commitment to an agreement is not a commitment to a legally binding treaty. It is very very unlikely that the US Republican dominated Senate would ratify such an agreement. That said many other leaders called for strong agreements including Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. However Xi Jining still used phrases such as the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities which ring back to the Kyoto days highlighting one area of contention already - fairness.

Now the political leaders have left and the negotiations are getting down to the nitty gritty as John Vidal, the environmental editor of the Guardian who is at the talks argues 'there are mountains to climb over cuts, long term goals, finance, equity, and the principle that the rich countries should act first and dig deeper because they are responsible for the historical emissions'.

As predicted the main areas of contention surround the use of the 2C limit, fairness of a top down approach and Finance. Although the Copenhagen Accord pledged to provide $100 billion a year in financial support for poorer countries from 2020, where that money will come from and how it will be distributed has yet to be agreed and is likely an area of serious contention (see future blog).

Although a legally binding agreement still remains the mantra of COP21 I don't think anyone knows what the outcome is going to really be. All we can do is hope the negotiations and UN conference are successful. As the blog title suggests, it really is Crunch time. I cannot bare to think about what the consequences of failure may be both for climate, but also the processes and methods of ever achieving success most notably the UNFCCC approach. If it fails an alternative will not be found in time.